TRADECRAFT: The “Boring Truth” Doctrine

The Concept: Old-school propaganda tried to make you believe one specific lie (e.g., “The Leader is a God”). Modern authoritarian propaganda (pioneered by 21st-century regimes) does not care if you believe the lie. Its goal is Confusion, not Persuasion.

The Mechanism:

1. High Volume: Pump out 50 contradictory stories a day.

2. No Consistency: On Monday, say “X happened.” On Tuesday, say “X is impossible.” On Wednesday, blame the opposition for X.

3. The Goal: The audience becomes so exhausted by trying to figure out the truth that they give up and accept the Leader’s version just to have stability.

4. The Result: Truth isn’t “hidden”; it is drowned in noise. This creates Cynicism—”Everyone lies, so I might as well support my guy.”

The Field Note: The Spy Bar Confession

Real-world intelligence from the periphery of the war zone.

“In the old days, a spy’s job was to keep secrets. Today, secrets are impossible to keep. The truth will come out eventually. So, the job has changed. Now, the goal is to plant a conspiracy theory to the Left of the truth, and a conspiracy theory to the Right of the truth.

Why? Because the Truth is usually boring. It involves paperwork, rust, and bureaucracy. The Conspiracies are exciting. They involve lasers, assassins, and cover-ups.

If you make the lies exciting enough, the public will ignore the truth simply because it is dull.”

THE MECHANISM: “The Noise Curtain”

How to hide a murder in plain sight.

Let’s say a Government accidently bombs a village. They cannot hide the bodies (Satellite photos exist). So, instead of denying it, they launch The Noise Curtain:

1. The Boring Truth (Reality): “A pilot made a calculation error due to fatigue and hit the wrong coordinates.” (Result: Incompetence. Action: Fire the General).

2. The Exciting Lie (Variation A): “The village was actually a secret terrorist bio-lab!” (Result: Heroism. Action: Give medals).

3. The Absurd Lie (Variation B): “The enemy bombed their own village to frame us!” (Result: Outrage. Action: Attack the enemy).

4. The Outcome: The public spends two weeks arguing “Was it a Bio-Lab or a False Flag?”

   • Nobody discusses the fatigue or the incompetence. The Boring Truth is drowned out by the “Cinematic” debate.

TRADECRAFT SKILL: The “Hollywood Check”

How to spot when you are being entertained instead of informed.

The Rule: Real life is usually disappointing, messy, and bureaucratic. Disinformation is usually structured like a movie (Heroes, Villains, Secret Plots).

The Drill: When a major event happens (a crash, an assassination, a leak), look at the three competing narratives.

1. Narrative A: “It was a dark cabal of pedophiles.” (Too Hollywood).

2. Narrative B: “It was a secret alien weapon.” (Too Sci-Fi).

3. Narrative C: “The security guard was underpaid, fell asleep, and left the door open.” (Boring).

The Verdict: Narrative C is almost always the truth. If the explanation feels “satisfying” or “epic,” it is likely a lie designed to distract you from the “boring” incompetence of the reality.

LAB EXERCISE: The “Boring Truth” Hunt

Task: Look at a current “Mystery” in the news (e.g., The Nord Stream Pipeline, the JFK Assassination, the Epstein Death).

1. List the Conspiracies: (e.g., “The CIA did it,” “The Russians did it”).

2. Find the Official/Boring Theory: (e.g., “Suicide due to negligence,” “A rogue group acting alone”).

3. Compare: Notice how the Conspiracies always imply Competence (A genius plan executed perfectly), while the Truth usually implies Incompetence (Everyone was an idiot).

4. The Razor: Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity. (Hanlon’s Razor).