TRADECRAFT: The Autocrat’s Playbook

The Concept

How does a democracy die? Usually, it is not a bang, but a whimper. History shows a consistent pattern—a “Source Code”—used by leaders to dismantle freedom legally. Whether it is Mussolini in 1922 or Ortega in 2006, the playbook remains surprisingly consistent.

We have compiled 20 Warning Signs based on 100 years of historical data. If you see more than 5 of these happening in your country, the slide has begun.

THE CHECKLIST: The 20 Signs

Category 1: The Erosion of Truth & Law

1. Attack the Referees (Judicial Purge): The leader fires, packs, or ignores the Supreme Court.

   • Evidence: Viktor Orbán (Hungary) created a new court system to bypass existing judges. Hugo Chávez (Venezuela) expanded the Supreme Court from 20 to 32 judges to pack it with loyalists.

2. Governing by Decree (Bypassing Congress): Laws are passed by the leader, ignoring the legislature.

   • Evidence: Benito Mussolini (Italy) and Getúlio Vargas (Brazil) used emergency decrees to render parliament irrelevant.

3. The “Enabling Act” (Emergency Powers): Creating a permanent crisis to suspend rights.

   • Evidence: Adolf Hitler (Germany) used the Reichstag Fire to pass the Enabling Act. Ferdinand Marcos (Philippines) declared Martial Law to abolish congress.

4. Politicizing the Police/Military: Promoting loyalists over professionals.

   • Evidence: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (Turkey) purged thousands of officers after 2016. Nicolás Maduro (Venezuela) relies on military promotions to maintain power.

5. Rewriting the Constitution (Term Limits): The rules are changed to let the leader stay forever.

   • Evidence: Daniel Ortega (Nicaragua), Alexander Lukashenko (Belarus), and Xi Jinping (China) all removed term limits to rule indefinitely.

6. “Lawfare” against Opponents: Using tax laws or “sedition” charges to jail rivals.

   • Evidence: Narendra Modi (India) used sedition laws against critics. Vladimir Putin (Russia) jailed Navalny on “fraud” charges.

Category 2: The Control of Information

7. Demonizing the Press (“Lügenpresse”): Calling real news “Fake” or “Enemy of the People.”

   • Evidence: Hitler used the term “Lying Press.” Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro adopted the exact same rhetoric.

8. The Oligarch Buyout: Friends of the leader buy the TV stations.

   • Evidence: In Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić‘s allies bought up media outlets to smother dissent.

9. Nationalizing Truth: Banning independent NGOs or foreign funding.

   • Evidence: Putin‘s “Foreign Agent” laws.

10. The Cult of Personality: The leader’s image is everywhere; they alone can “fix it.”

    • Evidence: Juan Perón (Argentina) and Mussolini built massive propaganda machines centered on their physical strength and infallibility.

11. Rewriting History: Changing school textbooks to glorify the leader’s party.

    • Evidence: Orbán and Putin have both mandated “patriotic” history curriculums that whitewash state crimes.

Category 3: The “Us vs. Them” Strategy

12. The “Internal Enemy” (Scapegoating): Blaming a minority group for the nation’s problems.

    • Evidence: Hitler (Jews), Modi (Muslims), Bukele (Gang Affiliates / Civil Liberties).

13. Paramilitary Wings (The Thugs): Unofficial groups that intimidate voters.

    • Evidence: Mussolini’s Blackshirts. Chávez’s Colectivos.

14. Toxic Nationalism: “We are the only true patriots.”

    • Evidence: Slobodan Milošević (Serbia) whipped up ethnic nationalism to trigger the Yugoslav wars.

15. Traditionalism as a Shield: Using religion to attack modern rights.

    • Evidence: Erdoğan (Turkey) and Putin (Russia) frame human rights as “Western decadence.”

Category 4: The Rigged System

16. Gerrymandering & Election Commissions: Capturing the people who count the votes.

    • Evidence: Robert Mugabe (Zimbabwe) and Maduro (Venezuela) repeatedly rigged vote counts despite losing popular support.

17. Jailing the Competition: Leading opposition candidates are arrested before the vote.

    • Evidence: Daniel Ortega arrested 7 potential presidential rivals before the 2021 election.

18. The “Self-Coup” (Autogolpe): The elected leader shuts down the government to “save” it.

    • Evidence: Alberto Fujimori (Peru) sent tanks to shut down Congress in 1992.

19. Nepotism (The Dynasty): Preparing children to take over.

    • Evidence: Joko Widodo (Indonesia) maneuvering his son into power; the Lukashenko family in Belarus.

20. Economic Populism (buying loyalty): Handouts today, bankruptcy tomorrow.

    • Evidence: Perón and Chávez used oil/state money to buy temporary loyalty from the working class while destroying the economy.

LAB EXERCISE: The “Dictator Test”

Pick a country currently in the news (e.g., El Salvador, Hungary, or your own).

1. Print the List.

2. The Audit: Go through the 20 points.

   • Check YES if there is hard evidence (a specific law passed, a specific arrest).

   • Check NO if it is just rhetoric.

3. The Score:

   • 0-3: Safe Democracy.

   • 4-8: Competitive Authoritarian (The “Grey Zone”).

   • 9+: Full Autocracy.