Course Content
Phase 5:The Capstone (The Million Dollar Audit)
We tell the story of Sholto David not as a "news story," but as a Case Study in Tradecraft. He used the exact skills we just taught (Visual Forensics, Source Verification, Institutional Audit) to expose a massive lie and get paid for saving the taxpayer money.
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TRADECRAFT: The Intelligence Analyst’s Guide to the Internet

TRADECRAFT: The Intelligence Trap (Motivated Reasoning)

The Concept

We like to think our brains are “Scientists”—we gather data and reach a conclusion.

In reality, our brains are Lawyers.

  1. The Client: Your Tribe / Your Identity / Your Gut Feeling.

  2. The Job: The Client decides the conclusion (“My team is good”), and your Brain’s job is to find the evidence to prove it.

This is called Motivated Reasoning.

When you see a study that agrees with you, your brain asks: “Can I believe this?” (Answer: Yes).

When you see a study that disagrees, your brain asks: “Must I believe this?” (Answer: No, look at that typo in paragraph 3!).

THE TRAP: Why Smart People are More Biased

You might think: “I have a high IQ, so I am less biased.”

Wrong. Research shows that high-IQ people are often more biased.

  • Why? Because they are better at arguing.

  • If you are smart, you are faster at finding reasons to dismiss data you don’t like. You use your intelligence to build a fortress around your bad ideas.

  • The Result: Intelligence is not a shield against bias; it is a tool for rationalization.


TRADECRAFT TOOL: Scout Mindset vs. Soldier Mindset

(Concept by Julia Galef)

The Soldier The Scout
Goal: Defend the tribe. Defeat the enemy. Goal: See the map clearly. Find the truth.
Reaction to error: Denial. “It wasn’t my fault.” Reaction to error: Curiosity. “Oh, I was wrong? Interesting.”
Emotion: Anger, Adrenaline, Tribalism. Emotion: Intrigue, Pride in accuracy.
Weakness: Dies on the wrong hill. Weakness: Doesn’t feel the “rush” of battle.

The Lesson: You cannot be a Critical Thinker if you are a Soldier. You must be a Scout. A Scout doesn’t care who wins; they just want to know where the bridge is.


LAB EXERCISE: The “Kill Your Darling” Test

Prove you are not a Soldier.

The Mission:

  1. Take a belief you hold strongly (e.g., “Nuclear power is dangerous” or “Rent control works”).

  2. The Challenge: Find one valid, data-backed argument against your belief.

  3. The Test: If you cannot find a single smart reason why the other side thinks that way, you are not informed—you are indoctrinated.

  4. Write it down: “I believe [X], but a valid point against it is [Y].”


ACTION ITEM: The “Umpire Check”

Next time you share a news story that makes your “Side” look good:

  1. Pause.

  2. Ask: “If this story was about the Other Team, would I fact-check it harder?”

  3. If the answer is Yes, you are engaging in Motivated Reasoning. Do not share it until you verify it.

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